25 Oct 2026 · fim-2026-10-25
Lead Signal
Zambia has moved its anti-money-laundering architecture forward on two fronts, both structural rather than incident-driven. The Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 (Act No. 9 of 2026) repeals and replaces the Banking and Financial Services Act, Cap. 387, and repeals the Money-lenders Act, Cap. 398, consolidating banks, microfinance institutions, moneylenders, fintechs and e-money issuers under a single Bank of Zambia licensing and supervisory regime. The consolidation brings previously fragmented oversight, including anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing duties that had been split across the repealed instruments, into one framework. The Act itself has not yet commenced: its own savings clause preserves existing licences, pending applications and accrued liabilities pending a commencement order, so the practical supervisory effect is still prospective rather than current.
Alongside the banking-sector consolidation, Zambia has lowered its beneficial-ownership disclosure threshold. The Companies (Amendment) Act No. 23 of 2025, in force since 30 December 2025, revises the beneficial-owner definition to capture a 5 percent ownership stake, a materially lower bar than the 25 percent threshold common internationally. The Patents and Companies Registration Agency is understood to be digitising its beneficial-ownership register in partnership with Open Ownership and the German development agency GIZ, though the underlying statutory text has not itself been retrieved, and the finding rests on secondary legal commentary rather than the Act as gazetted.
Other Developments
Crypto-asset oversight remains unchanged in substance. The Bank of Zambia's March 2026 registration exercise for virtual-asset service providers, which closed on 27 March 2026, was explicit in its own public notice that registration is a preliminary step and does not amount to a licence or official approval to operate. That exercise sits alongside the Financial Intelligence Centre's 2022 VASP Sector Guidelines, which already impose a ten-year record-retention duty on virtual-asset service providers under the FIC (General) Regulations. No instrument has superseded either, so the operative crypto framework is a registration-not-licensing regime layered onto pre-existing record-keeping obligations.
Zambia's standing with the Financial Action Task Force has not changed. As of the 19 June 2026 plenary, Zambia appears on neither the increased-monitoring list nor the list of countries subject to a call for action. The next mutual evaluation on-site visit under the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group is slated for 2028, and Zambia's own regional body page records progress against deficiencies identified in its 2019 mutual evaluation and the subsequent follow-up report.
Sanctions exposure continues to run through the United Nations route only. No autonomous Zambian sanctions list has been identified, and screening obligations appear to remain tied to the UN Security Council consolidated list. No Zambia-specific designation by the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, the UK's Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, or the EU Council was located in the course of this cycle, though this finding rests on a single compliance-advisory secondary source rather than a primary sanctions-authority notice.
Cross-Monitor Connections
The consolidation of fintech and e-money licensing under the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 has a direct bearing on payments-sector market access: the same instrument that folds anti-money-laundering supervision into one regime also determines which payment service providers may lawfully operate once commencement occurs, a question of live interest to payments-market monitoring. The virtual-asset registration regime likewise sits at the boundary between financial-crime oversight and the commercial development of Zambia's digital-asset sector, since a registration exercise explicitly stopping short of licensure leaves commercial operators in a supervisory grey zone that a parallel payments or fintech-commercial lens would track from the market-access side rather than the illicit-finance side.
Outlook
The near-term question for Zambia's anti-money-laundering architecture is commencement: the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 was enacted but, as, had not been brought into force by statutory instrument, and its practical supervisory reach, including for anti-money-laundering purposes, depends on that step. Separately, the beneficial-ownership threshold reduction to 5 percent, if borne out once the Act's own text is confirmed against a primary register source, would place Zambia's corporate-transparency regime ahead of the international norm on this specific metric, though the claim currently rests on secondary commentary alone. Zambia's absence from both Financial Action Task Force public statements is likely to persist absent a new mutual evaluation finding, with the next on-site visit not expected before 2028.
11 Oct 2026 · fim-2026-10-11
Lead Signal
Zambia enacted two foundational financial-sector statutes this cycle that, once commenced, will substantially expand the formal AML/CTF supervisory perimeter. The National Payment System Act, 2026 (Act No. 5 of 2026) and the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 (Act No. 9 of 2026) were both assented to on 31 March 2026 and gazetted on 8 April 2026, but neither has yet come into force pending a ministerial commencement statutory instrument. The National Payment System Act repeals the National Payment Systems Act Cap 359 of 2007 and moves Zambia from system-level designation toward individual licensing of payment service providers and e-money issuers, carrying with it AML/CFT duties, cyber-incident reporting, capital requirements and customer-fund segregation. The Banking and Financial Services Act consolidates banks, microfinance institutions, moneylenders, fintechs and e-money issuers under a single Bank of Zambia licensing and supervisory framework, repealing the prior Banking and Financial Services Act and the Money-lenders Act Cap 398. Together the two instruments represent a structural architecture shift rather than an incident: the underlying AML/CFT legal base continues to rest on the Financial Intelligence Centre Act No. 46 of 2010, as amended by Act No. 4 of 2016 and Act No. 16 of 2020, and on the Anti-Terrorism and Non-Proliferation Act No. 30 of 2024 together with the National Anti-Terrorism Centre's January 2025 guidelines for sanctions and proliferation-financing screening, but the perimeter those instruments police is set to widen considerably once the 2026 Acts commence.
Zambia's standing with the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group continues on a steady-improvement track. The country remains in enhanced follow-up since its 2019 mutual evaluation report, with a 30 September 2025 follow-up report re-rating Recommendation 2 and Recommendation 16 to Largely Compliant and Compliant respectively, while deficiencies in Recommendation 8 and Recommendation 35 persist. Zambia does not appear among the jurisdictions FATF placed under increased monitoring following its 19 June 2026 plenary.
Other Developments
Fintech and payments commercial flow continued at a steady pace. Lupiya, a Zambian digital lender, closed a disclosed USD 11.25 million Series A round reported 17 February 2026, led by Alitheia IDF and Enygma Ventures. Separately, Airtel Money Zambia and Stanbic Bank Zambia announced a mobile-wallet-on-POS partnership around 2 June 2026, with Stanbic Zambia's Head of Business and Commercial Banking describing the collaboration as part of the bank's ongoing investment programme. Neither disclosed deal carried any attached regulatory review in the reporting reviewed this cycle.
Crypto-adjacent AML architecture remained unchanged. Zambia has no comprehensive virtual-asset-service-provider licensing statute. The Financial Intelligence Centre's 2022 VASP Guidelines continue to designate virtual asset service providers as reporting entities under section 2 of the FIC Act as amended by Act No. 16 of 2020, and the Bank of Zambia continues to supervise virtual-asset businesses on an informal, cautionary basis rather than through dedicated licensing.
Cross-Monitor Connections
The pending commencement of the National Payment System Act and the Banking and Financial Services Act is of direct relevance to the World Payments Monitor's licensing and market-access tracking, since the same two instruments reshape PSP, e-money and bank licensing architecture that payments-focused analysis follows independently. No conflict-finance, extractive-industry or state-capture nexus was identified for Zambia this cycle that would route to the broader fleet's conflict-finance or state-capture monitors.
Outlook
The operative legal position in Zambia today remains the pre-reform framework: the FIC Act and the 2024 Anti-Terrorism and Non-Proliferation Act govern AML/CTF and sanctions screening, while payment system and banking supervision continues under the statutes the 2026 Acts are poised to repeal. Commencement of the National Payment System Act and the Banking and Financial Services Act is expected as scheduled around early 2027, though no commencement statutory instrument had been located this cycle and the timing carries genuine uncertainty. Once commenced, both Acts would meaningfully enlarge the population of entities subject to formal AML/CFT duties, cyber-incident reporting and capital and fund-segregation requirements, and this expansion is the structural development to watch irrespective of any single enforcement action.
4 Oct 2026 · fim-2026-10-04
Lead Signal
Zambia has assented to and gazetted a new National Payment System Act, but the instrument that would actually set its anti-money-laundering architecture in motion has not been made. Act No. 5 of 2026 was assented to on 31 March 2026 and gazetted on 8 April 2026, and the registry entry for the statute marks it Uncommenced. Section 5(1)(e) of the Act gives the Bank of Zambia an express statutory function to monitor payment service providers for purposes of anti-money laundering, countering the financing of terrorism and countering proliferation financing, a function stated only generically in the 2007 Act the new law will eventually repeal. Until a Minister makes the statutory instrument that brings the 2026 Act into operation, Cap. 359 continues to govern, and the expanded monitoring mandate sits in reserve rather than in force. This is the architecture-over-incident reading the record supports this cycle: a legislature has written a broader AML/CFT/PF supervisory mandate for the central bank into law, and the gap between enactment and commencement is itself the signal, not a procedural footnote to it.
The distinction matters because it determines what the Bank of Zambia can lawfully do today versus what it will be able to do once the appointed-date instrument is signed. A payment service provider operating under the current Cap. 359 regime is supervised under a narrower, system-designation-focused framework; the same provider operating after commencement would sit under an explicit AML/CFT/PF monitoring function with a different statutory texture. Reading the gazette date as the operative date would overstate what is currently enforceable in Zambia, and the record as retrieved this cycle does not support a commencement date being set.
Other Developments
ESAAMLG follow-up reporting records incremental re-ratings since the 2019 mutual evaluation. Follow-up reporting under the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group indicates Zambia has been re-rated toward Largely Compliant or Compliant on a number of FATF Recommendations, including Recommendations 10, 16 and 22, since its 2019 mutual evaluation. The FATF country page corroborates a general progress narrative on addressing technical-compliance deficiencies. No new FATF plenary action specific to Zambia was located this cycle, and Zambia continues to sit outside both FATF public lists.
The Financial Intelligence Centre has published its Second National Risk Assessment Report. The FIC Zambia news page records the publication of the Second NRA Report. The underlying content of that report was not independently retrieved this cycle, so the substance of its risk findings cannot be characterised here; what the record supports is the fact of publication itself, which marks a periodic re-assessment point in Zambia's AML/CFT/PF risk-understanding cycle.
Cross-Monitor Connections
The National Payment System Act's expanded monitoring function, once commenced, would sit at the intersection of payments-sector supervision and the AML/CFT/PF perimeter that other monitors track through enforcement volume and typology exposure; a widened statutory monitoring mandate for payment service providers is the kind of structural change that compliance-technology and crypto-integrity trackers elsewhere in the fleet would expect to see reflected in supervisory expectations for screening and transaction monitoring, once in force. No cross-monitor linkage beyond this structural observation is supported by the record retrieved this cycle.
Outlook
The National Payment System Act, 2026 is expected to require a ministerial statutory instrument before its AML/CFT/PF monitoring provisions take effect, with no commencement date confirmed by the record as at this cycle. Until that instrument is made, the Bank of Zambia's express AML/CFT/PF monitoring function over payment service providers remains a reserved power rather than an operative one, and the 2007 Act continues to apply. The appropriate posture for the period ahead is to treat the commencement step itself as the next material event to watch, rather than treating the assent and gazettal dates already passed as the point at which obligations under the new mandate begin.
29 Sep 2026 · fim-2026-09-28
Lead Signal
Zambia has moved on two fronts this cycle, both structural rather than episodic. The Bank of Zambia directed all resident and non-resident entities providing virtual or crypto asset services in Zambia to register with BoZ by 27 March 2026, and from 30 March 2026, BoZ-regulated entities may no longer facilitate transactions to or from an unregistered VASP. This is a first-order architecture-building step, a precursor named in BoZ's own 2024-2027 Strategic Plan as leading toward a comprehensive VASP regulatory framework, rather than an enforcement action against any named party. Separately, Zambia enacted the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 (No. 9 of 2026), repealing and replacing the 2017 Act and the Money-lenders Act, and expressly providing for monitoring of compliance with anti-money laundering, counter-terrorism financing and counter-proliferation financing obligations among financial service providers under consolidated Bank of Zambia oversight.
Read together, these are two halves of the same architectural move: Zambia is closing an unmonitored channel in virtual assets while simultaneously consolidating its statutory AML/CFT/CPF supervisory basis for the financial sector as a whole. Neither development is an enforcement episode against a named institution; both are the kind of enablement-and-perimeter work that determines what enforcement becomes possible later.
Other Developments
FATF and ESAAMLG standing. Zambia is not on the FATF list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring as of the reviewed plenaries, and remains in ESAAMLG enhanced follow-up on its 2019 mutual evaluation, continuing to report progress to ESAAMLG. This is a carried-forward status rather than a change, but it frames the two structural developments above: Zambia is building AML/CFT architecture from a position of enhanced follow-up rather than grey-list countermeasures, a materially different starting posture than jurisdictions currently under FATF call for action.
Extraterritorial scope of the VASP directive. The BoZ registration requirement applies to non-resident entities providing virtual-asset services to persons or businesses within Zambia regardless of physical presence, reinforcing the assessment that this is architecture-building with an extraterritorial reach rather than a narrow domestic registration exercise.
Cross-Monitor Connections
The Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026's consolidation of licensing and AML/CFT monitoring duty under Bank of Zambia oversight is directly relevant to world-payments' tracking of Zambia's payments and banking licensing perimeter, given that the same Act underpins BoZ's authority over financial service providers more broadly. The VASP registration directive is separately relevant to crypto's tracking of Zambia's crypto-licensing posture, since the registration mandate is the same underlying instrument crypto is assessing from a licensing-classification lens; this brief foregrounds its AML/CFT-architecture reading rather than its licensing-classification reading.
Outlook
The comprehensive VASP regulatory framework that BoZ has signalled as the next phase beyond registration remains unpublished; no draft licensing or supervisory rulebook text exists as of this cycle, and its expected arrival is estimated for Q2 2027, though this is a wide multi-year uncertainty band. On the banking-sector side, implementing statutory instruments under the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 remain pending as of Q4 2026, and industry AML/CTF compliance programmes generally have not yet been re-mapped to the consolidated statutory basis. Watch for the publication of either the VASP framework or the implementing instruments as the events that would convert this cycle's architecture-building into an operational compliance obligation with dated deadlines.
22 Sep 2026 · fim-2026-08-25
Lead Signal
Zambia's 2026 legislative calendar has produced the most structurally significant AML/CFT-adjacent development assessed this cycle: the Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 (Act No. 9), read together with the National Payment System Act, 2026 (Act No. 5), consolidates banking, microfinance, moneylending and e-money/fintech oversight under the Bank of Zambia within a single licensing, reporting and enforcement framework that carries express provision for monitoring AML/CFT/CPF compliance. This is architecture, not incident: the prior regime split banking, moneylending and payments oversight across a fragmented set of instruments, and the 2026 consolidation broadens the population of entities now subject to a unified Bank of Zambia AML/CFT/CPF compliance-monitoring mandate. The assessment is held at Assessed confidence, reflecting Tier-1 parliamentary sourcing for the statutory consolidation itself, read alongside the acknowledgment that the descriptive AML/CFT baseline remains unchanged beneath this new supervisory architecture. Read against the three-pillar standard, this consolidation is presented in sourcing as an AML pillar-facing reform; no distinct CTF- or CPF-specific provision within the consolidation was separately identified this cycle, and that pillar gap is worth tracking rather than assuming filled by implication.
Other Developments
Beneficial ownership and corporate transparency moved from a standing gap toward an active, if still pre-legislative, remediation this cycle. A partnership between the Zambia registrar PACRA, Open Ownership and GIZ, launched in January 2026, is digitising beneficial-ownership data collection with the stated aim of a public, economy-wide beneficial-ownership register. Legislative amendments needed to complete the reform have cabinet-in-principle approval and IMF technical support but remain subject to further consultation, which keeps this development Assessed rather than Confirmed and structural rather than resolved.
Crypto and digital-asset oversight tightened materially. The Bank of Zambia has directed all resident and non-resident entities providing virtual or crypto-asset services to Zambian users to register with the central bank, with registration due by 27 March 2026 and a transaction-blocking backstop taking effect from 30 March 2026 under which Bank of Zambia-regulated institutions may not process transactions with unregistered virtual-asset service providers. The mandate captures both resident and non-resident providers serving Zambian users, giving it an extraterritorial reach beyond Zambia's borders as an AML/CFT control point. This is a genuine new control point for crypto flows touching Zambia, though its ultimate strength is contingent on the fuller regulatory framework that remains pending further consultation; the finding is corroborated across two independent Tier-3 sources but lacks a directly retrievable Tier-1 Bank of Zambia primary text this cycle.
Standing AMLA architecture. Structurally, the EU's evolving AML Package — the directly applicable AML Regulation (Reg (EU) 2024/1624), the sixth AML Directive transposed per Member State, and the AMLA Regulation (Reg (EU) 2024/1620) establishing the Anti-Money Laundering Authority — continues to shift EU-level supervision from a purely national model toward a hybrid direct/indirect-supervision perimeter. Zambia sits outside that perimeter entirely; its own beneficial-ownership reform this cycle is a domestically-driven PACRA/Open Ownership/GIZ initiative with IMF technical support, not an AMLA-adjacent development, and the two should not be conflated even though both sit within the beneficial-ownership and corporate-transparency typology.
Cross-Monitor Connections
The Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 and the National Payment System Act, 2026 are shared substrate with the World Payments Monitor, which tracks the same twin statutory overhaul as a licensing and market-access re-founding; the AML/CFT-supervisory-consolidation reading here and the payment-services-authorisation reading there are two lenses on the same underlying instruments. The Bank of Zambia's virtual-asset-service-provider registration mandate is shared substrate with the Crypto monitor, which tracks the same directive as a crypto-licensing and cross-border-reach development; here it is read instead as a new AML/CFT control point pending a fuller supervisory framework.
Outlook
Three threads carry into the next cycle. The Banking and Financial Services Act, 2026 is expected to reach fuller commencement around the third quarter of 2026, at which point the broadened Bank of Zambia AML/CFT/CPF compliance-monitoring population should begin to take practical shape. The PACRA/Open Ownership/GIZ beneficial-ownership project remains pre-legislative; whether the cabinet-approved amendments clear consultation and reach Parliament is the next material marker for Zambia's corporate-transparency posture. And the Bank of Zambia's virtual-asset registration regime remains explicitly interim, pending a fuller licensing and supervisory framework following consultation with now-registered providers — the next cycle's central question is whether that fuller framework begins to take shape or whether the interim registration-and-blocking mechanism becomes the de facto standing regime.
14 Jul 2026 · fim-2026-07-14
Lead Signal
This cycle establishes the first Financial Integrity Monitor baseline for Zambia, a jurisdiction whose anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing regime rests on the Financial Intelligence Centre Act and the 2017 Companies Act and which remains, per the 2019 ESAAMLG Mutual Evaluation Report and the 2022 follow-up, outside the FATF Increased Monitoring list but still inside ESAAMLG enhanced follow-up with unresolved beneficial-ownership, DNFBP-supervision and targeted-financial-sanctions technical-compliance gaps. The most systemically significant exposure identified this cycle is architectural rather than episodic: mining multinationals and trading intermediaries structure copper and cobalt-adjacent export contracts through offshore trading hubs in Switzerland and Mauritius, using related-party pricing arrangements to shift taxable profit outside Zambia and erode the mineral-revenue base of the country, a pattern sustained by weak beneficial-ownership verification and customs capacity rather than by any single enforcement episode. That extractive-integrity exposure sits alongside a second structural finding: both the Financial Intelligence Centre and the Anti-Corruption Commission have presidentially appointed board leadership, an arrangement illustrated by the wholesale dissolution of the board of the Commission in July 2024 following allegations of inaction on FIU-flagged suspicious-transaction cases, creating a channel for political interference in high-level corruption matters that the architecture-over-incident principle treats as more consequential than any individual case outcome.
Two further developments anchor this baseline. The December 2025 update by the European Commission to the EU list of high-risk third countries, given effect through Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/83, left Zambia unlisted while removing regional neighbours Mozambique, Tanzania and South Africa, a regional recalibration that shifts comparative correspondent-banking and enhanced-due-diligence risk perception for the trade corridors on which Zambia depends for copper exports, without any Zambia-specific listing action. At the same time, the Patents and Companies Registration Agency is moving, incompletely, toward automated beneficial-ownership access: investigator data-turnaround times improved to under a week from up to two weeks as of December 2025, and an application programming interface is planned to reduce the approximately 85 percent of financial-crime investigators who still rely on manual access to company data.
Other Developments
Beneficial-ownership verification remains largely manual despite incremental gains. Approximately 85 percent of financial-crime investigators in Zambia still lack automated access to PACRA company data as of December 2025, even as the planned application-programming-interface initiative and the reduction in turnaround times documented by the December 2025 UNCAC Conference of States Parties conference-room paper point toward gradual improvement.
Trust beneficial-ownership disclosure remains a structural design gap. Trusts in Zambia are legally required to update beneficial-ownership information only once every five years, and the 2019 Mutual Evaluation Report found this obligation rarely observed in practice, a combination the enabler-jurisdiction filter treats as a capacity-versus-choice question that current evidence cannot fully resolve.
DNFBP supervision has not been confirmed operational since the 2019 finding that it had not commenced, and the 2022 follow-up report shows only partial technical-compliance progress, leaving lawyers, accountants and real-estate agents outside effective AML oversight.
Technical-compliance re-ratings by ESAAMLG moved in both directions this cycle. Recommendation 7, covering proliferation-related targeted financial sanctions, was upgraded to partially compliant, while Recommendations 5 and 2 were downgraded to partially compliant, leaving Zambia in enhanced follow-up despite the mixed trajectory.
Zambia serves as a transit jurisdiction in a regional gold-smuggling corridor that moves gold smuggled from Zimbabwe through South Africa, Zambia and Mozambique toward buyers including hubs in the United Arab Emirates, exploiting weak customs verification and limited regional financial-intelligence-unit cooperation.
A parallel illicit trade in Mukula rosewood timber moves proceeds outside the regulated financial sector entirely. A surge in illegal harvesting feeds an informal, largely cash-based export trade to Chinese buyers involving bribery of forestry and customs officials and fraudulent export paperwork, limiting the reach of suspicious-transaction-report-based detection.
The comparative sanctions-architecture position of Zambia diverges sharply from that of its regional neighbour. Zambia carries no designation under EU, OFAC, OFSI or UN sanctions regimes, while Zimbabwe remains subject to an active US Global Magnitsky programme with re-designations as recently as March 2024, creating comparative correspondent-banking friction for regional corridors that transit through Zambia.
The status of Zambia under the UK High-Risk Third Country framework remains unverified this cycle. Non-listing was inferred from historical alignment with FATF and EU lists rather than independently confirmed against gov.uk sources, an evidentiary gap this baseline flags for direct re-verification.
No dedicated virtual-asset-service-provider licensing or crypto-AML regime has been published for Zambia, and the 2022 exploration by the Bank of Zambia of a central bank digital currency did not proceed into a published framework, even as vendor analytics show approximately 52 percent year-on-year on-chain value growth across Sub-Saharan Africa between July 2024 and June 2025, driven by currency volatility and limited banking access, dynamics present in the kwacha-exposed economy of Zambia.
A whistleblower-retaliation allegation and an institutional board dissolution test the durability of the anti-graft pledge of the government. A former Finance Ministry official reported alleged retaliation for raising concerns about misuse of government funds under the zero-tolerance anti-graft pledge of the Hichilema administration, with no public government response recorded, while the board of the Anti-Corruption Commission was dissolved by the President in July 2024 following allegations that Commission management was corrupt and inactive on major FIU-flagged suspicious-transaction cases, the underlying capture allegations unresolved in the public reporting reviewed.
Cross-Monitor Connections
Three linkages route this Zambia baseline to adjacent monitors. The copper and cobalt-adjacent transfer-pricing architecture, structured through Switzerland and Mauritius, is relevant to commodity-flow evasion tracking at ERM given its direct bearing on cross-border mineral-trade valuation integrity. The same regional gold-smuggling corridor that transits Zambia between Zimbabwe and buyers including hubs in the United Arab Emirates is relevant to the tracking by SCEM of conflict-context and informal-mining-economy dynamics in the region. And the July 2024 dissolution of the board of the Anti-Corruption Commission, alongside the presidentially appointed leadership structure shared by the Commission and the Financial Intelligence Centre, is relevant to the kleptocratic state-capture tracking at WDM, illustrating how institutional design can expose financial-integrity bodies to executive discretion even where the underlying AML/CFT legal architecture is reasonably developed.
Outlook
Three forward-looking items will test whether the mixed trajectory of this cycle tips toward improvement or stasis. The planned PACRA application-programming-interface integration for beneficial-ownership data, expected within the 2026-to-2027 window, would materially reduce the manual-access bottleneck currently affecting roughly 85 percent of investigators if implementation proceeds on schedule, though the completion timeline remains unconfirmed. The next enhanced follow-up review by ESAAMLG of the technical-compliance and effectiveness ratings of Zambia, expected in 2027, will re-test whether the Recommendation 7 upgrade holds and whether the Recommendation 2 and 5 downgrades are addressed. And the October 2026 Plenary of FATF will review Increased Monitoring list composition; the continued absence of Zambia from that list remains contingent on effectiveness outcomes rather than settled status. None of these developments should be read as predictions; they are the structural checkpoints against which the baseline of the next cycle will be measured.